Might-makes-right no answer to island disputes

Indonesia has officially joined the line-up of nations opposing China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, abandoning its previous efforts to be a neutral umpire in the disputes.

Jakarta has now aligned itself with the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, all of which have asserted their rights against China’s on various islets and shoals as well as the fishing grounds – and possible rich hydrocarbon fields – surrounding them.

In doing so it finally recognises that China’s land grab does include at least some of the islands in the Natuna Chain. Indonesia administers the islands as part of its Riau Province. Without the naval capacity to resist its giant neighbour, Jakarta has relied on quiet diplomacy supported by the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) to keep Beijing at bay.

However, it is now faced with the example of the Philippines which sought to seek arbitration using UNCLOS for its dispute with China over the ownership of Ren’ai Reef. Beijing refused to take part, stating it was a matter of sovereignty that could be settled only by “direct negotiation”.

If a UNCLOS Tribunal goes ahead and rules in the Philippines’ favour, China will ignore it, Beijing stated.

As recently as last month, Indonesia’s new Ambassador to China, Sugeng Tahardjo, was hailing cooperation between the two countries that would bring benefits to the entire region.

“Indonesia-China relations are solid, mutually beneficial and continuously growing,” Sugeng said.

It appears that this cooperation will not be extending to a speedy resolution of the Natuna dispute.

In recent times Indonesian Coastguard attempts to detain Chinese fishing boats working in its Exclusive Economic Zone have been resisted by armed naval vessels. Beijing, on the other hand, has declared a fishing ban on foreign vessels around Hainan Island that takes in more than half of the entire South China Sea. The final straw has come with a Chinese decision to declare an Air Defence Identification Zone over the South China Sea similar to one already in place over the East China Sea.

Writing in the PacNet Newsletter, Associate Professor Ann Marie Murphy of Seton Hall University in the United States calls Indonesia’s new tactics “a game changer”.

“With Indonesia officially contesting China’s claim, the strategic ambiguity that had allowed Indonesia to position itself as a mediator between China and its ASEAN partners has been lost,” Professor Murphy says.

“Precisely how events will unfold cannot be predicted but tensions in the South China Sea are likely to rise further.”

At stake here is not just the ownership of a few rocks, but the entire international framework governing disputes between nations. Gregory Poling of the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies sums it up when he says if China, by virtue of size or force of arms, is free to ignore that framework, then the entire edifice risks being discredited.

“No nation, China included, would find its security and prosperity better served by a return to the pre-20^th century system of might-makes-right relations,” Pollard says.